December 2007 issue contents
Modern Forecasting Models in Action: Improving Macroeconomic Analyses at Central Banks

by Malin Adolfsona, Michael K. Anderssona, Jesper Lindéa,b, Mattias Villania,c and Anders Vredina


There are many indications that formal methods are not used to their full potential by central banks today. In this paper, using data from Sweden, we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policymakers deal with in practice. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more subjective forecasts, both in terms of actual forecasts and root mean-squared errors. We also discuss how to combine model­ and judgment-based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out of sample. In addition, we show the advantages of structural analysis and use the models for interpreting the recent development of the inflation rate through historical decompositions. Last, we discuss the monetary transmission mechanism in the models by comparing impulse-response functions.

JEL Codes: E52, E37, E47.

Full article (PDF, 34 pages 764 kb)