Volume 21, Issue 2 April 2025

Monetary Tightening and Financial Stress During Supply- versus Demand-Driven Inflation

Abstract

This paper explores the state-dependent effects of a monetary tightening on financial stress, focusing on a novel dimension: whether inflation is driven by supply versus demand factors at the time of the policy intervention. These underlying factors likely affect the economy’s financial resilience to a monetary tightening. We estimate the effects of high-frequency identified monetary surprises on financial stress, differentiating the effects based on whether inflation is supply- or demand-driven. We find that financial stress increases after a tightening when inflation is supply-driven, whereas it remains roughly unchanged or even declines when inflation is demand-driven.

Authors

  • F Boissay
  • F Collard
  • C Manea
  • A Shapiro

JEL codes

  • E1
  • E3
  • E6
  • G01

Other papers in this issue

Thiago R T Ferreira and Nils Gornemann and Julio L Ortiz

Margherita Bottero and Stefano Schiaffi

Jean-Paul L’Huillier and Gregory Phelan

Julien Bengui and Lu Han and Gaelan MacKenzie

Wolfgang Lechthaler and Mewael F Tesfaselassie

Richard K Crump and Stefano Eusepi and Domenico Giannone and Eric Qian and Argia Sbordone