March 2020 issue contents
Does Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?

Thomas Lustenbergera, Enzo Rossib


In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited countryand variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors and dispersion.

JEL Code: C23, C53, E37, E58, D8.

Full article (PDF, 49 pages, 492 kb)
Online appendix

a Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) and University of Basel
b Swiss National Bank and University of Zurich