June 2006 issue contents
Anticipation of Monetary Policy - IJCB - June 2006

by Seth B. Carpenter and Selva Demiralp
Federal Reserve Board Department of Economics, KoƧ University


Central banking transparency is now a topic of great interest, but its impact on the implementation of monetary policy has not been studied. This paper documents that anticipated changes in the target federal funds rate complicate open market operations. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence on the behavior of banks and the Open Market Trading Desk. We find a significant shift in demand for funds ahead of expected target rate changes and that the Desk only incompletely accommodates this shift in demand. This anticipation effect, however, does not materially affect other markets.

JEL Codes: E5, E52, E58.

Full article (PDF, 39 pages 552 kb)