by Ramón Adalid, Günter Coenen, Peter McAdam (European Central Bank) and Stefano Siviero (Banca d'Italia)
In this paper, we examine the performance and robustness of optimized interest-rate rules in four models of the euro area that differ considerably in terms of size, degree of aggregation, relevance of forward-looking behavioral elements, and adherence to microfoundations. Our findings are broadly consistent with results documented for models of the U.S. economy: backward-looking models require relatively more aggressive policies with, at most, moderate inertia; rules that are optimized for such models tend to perform reasonably well in forward-looking models, while the reverse is not necessarily true; and, hence, the operating characteristics of robust rules (i.e., rules that perform satisfactorily in all models) are heavily weighted towards those required by backward-looking models.
JEL Codes: E31, E52, E58, E61
Full article (PDF, 38 pages 282 kb)