Volume 20, Issue 4 October 2024

Government Debt and Expectations-Driven Liquidity Traps

Abstract

The presence of an effective lower bound on the nominal interest rate creates a risk that expectations of low inflation become entrenched. When this happens, distortionary taxation and expansionary fiscal policies may result in a large accumulation of debt that spurs inflation when the lower bound ceases to bind. The corresponding increase in expected real interest rates then further depresses consumption and output. In light of this outcome, the welfare-maximizing strategy in an expectations-driven liquidity trap is to downsize the government by concurrently cutting taxes and spending. This policy achieves the twin objective of stimulating the economy while containing the debt accumulation.

Authors

  • Charles de Beauffort

JEL codes

  • E43
  • E52
  • E62
  • E63

Other papers in this issue

Toni Ahnert and Katrin Assenmacher and Peter Hoffmann and Agnese Leonello and Cyril Monnet and Davide Porcellacchia

Shalva Mkhatrishvili and Giorgi Tsutskiridze and Lasha Arevadze

Tobias Adrian and Vitor Gaspar and Francis Vitek

Laura Acevedo and Marc Hofstetter

Juan M Londono and Stijn Claessens and Ricardo Correa