Volume 19, Issue 2 June 2023

The Rise in Inequality, the Decline in the Natural Interest Rate, and the Increase in Household Debt

Abstract

I investigate the effect of rising income inequality on the natural rate of interest in an economy with “rich” households who have “capitalist spirit” type preferences over their wealth, “non-rich” households, and housing and credit markets. Simulating the increase in U.S. income inequality over the 1981– 2016 period generates a downward trend in the natural rate in line with recent empirical estimates. The model also broadly captures the upward trend in the debt-to-income ratio and loan-to-value ratio of the bottom 90 percent of households, as well as the upward trend in the value of the housing stock during this period.

Authors

  • Ansgar Rannenberg

JEL codes

  • E25
  • E52
  • E43
  • D14

Other papers in this issue

Michele Ca' Zorzi and Luca Dedola and Georgios Georgiadis and Marek Jarociński and Livio Stracca and Georg Strasser

Dieter Gramlich and Thomas Walker and Yunfei Zhao and Mohammad Bitar

Martin Gächter and Martin Geiger and Elias Hasler