Abstract
We study the effects of oil prices on consumption across countries and U.S. states, by exploiting the time-series and cross-sectional variation in oil dependency of these economies. We build two large data sets: one with 55 countries over the years 1975-2018, and another with all U.S. states over the period 1989-2018. We then show that oil price declines generate positive effects on consumption in oil-importing economies, while depressing consumption in oil-exporting economies. We also document that oil price increases do more harm than the good afforded by oil price decreases both in the world and in U.S. aggregates.
Authors
- Andrea De Michelis
- Thiago Ferreira
- Matteo Iacoviello
JEL codes
- Q43
- E32
- F40