Volume 15, Issue 3 September 2019

Optimal Negative Interest Rate under Uncertainty

Abstract

I employ a simple overlapping-generations model of money and nominal bonds with Epstein-Zin preferences and study the optimal negative interest rate. A subzero lower bound can arise in the model due to the illiquidity of money as a savings instrument. This model of negative interest rates differentiates from conventional ones based on exogenous money holding costs in that the subzero lower bound as well as the optimal negative rate turn out to crucially depend upon agents' preferences for the timing of uncertainty resolution. Both the lower bound and the optimal interest rate for aggregate consumption can fall into a negative territory only if agents prefer late resolution of uncertainty. In the latter case, the lower bound and the optimal rate both decrease even further when aggregate output uncertainty rises. However, the optimal interest rate turns out to be non-negative and to have a positive relationship with the degree of aggregate uncertainty if agents prefer early resolution of uncertainty.

Authors

  • Kuk Mo Jung

JEL codes

  • E43
  • E50
  • E52
  • G12

Other papers in this issue

Juha Kilponen and Massimiliano Pisani and Sebastian Schmidt and Vesna Corbo and Tibor Hledik and Josef Hollmayr and Samuel Hurtado and Paulo Júlio and Dmitry Kulikov and Matthieu Lemoine and Matija Lozej and Henrik Lundvall and José R. Maria and Brian Micallef and Dimitris Papageorgiou and Jakub Rysanek and Dimitrios Sideris and Carlos Thomas and Gregory de Walque

Martina Jašová and Richhild Moessner and Elöd Takáts

Luca Guerrieri and Matteo Iacoviello and Francisco Covas and John C. Driscoll and Mohammad Jahan-Parvar and Michael Kiley and Albert Queralto and Jae Sim