Factor Model Forecasts for New Zealand

by Troy D. Matheson
Reserve Bank of New Zealand

Abstract

This paper focuses on forecasting four key New Zealand macroeconomic variables using a dynamic factor model and a large number of predictors. We compare the (simulated) real-time forecasting performance of the factor model with a variety of other time-series models (including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s published forecasts), and we gauge the sensitivity of our results to alternative variable-selection algorithms. We find that the factor model performs particularly well at longer horizons.

JEL Codes: C32, E47.

 
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