Volume 22, Issue 4 October 2026

Low for Long: Could Extended Periods of Ultra-low Monetary Policy Rates Have Harmful Effects?

Abstract

Extended periods of ultra-low monetary policy rates in advanced economies have rekindled debates about the zombification of weak companies and its impact on resource allocation, economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. Using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, we find that recessions are a critical factor in the increase in the number of zombie firms and that extended periods of low interest rates are associated with a higher probability of zombification. Our findings imply a trade-off between conducting a countercyclical monetary pol icy and using expansionary tools for long periods, which may lead to a combination of low interest rates, low growth, and high financial vulnerability. We also find that strong banking supervision reduces the probability of zombification.

Authors

  • Etibar Jafarov
  • Enrico Minnella

JEL codes

  • E44
  • E52
  • E58
  • G20

Other papers in this issue

Guillaume Arnould and Benjamin Guin and Steven Ongena and Paolo Siciliani

Lennart Brandt and Arthur Saint Guilhem and Maximilian Schröder and Ine Van Robays

Silvia Albrizio and Iván Kataryniuk and Luis Molina and Jan Schäfer

Fructuoso Borrallo and Lucía Cuadro-Sáez and Corinna Ghirelli and Javier J. Pérez