Abstract
We analyze the anchoring of long-term euro-area inflation expectations in the decade following the Global Financial Crisis, by exploring a new weekly survey, conducted among around 25 macroanalysts from 2010 to 2018. We perform a battery of tests on level expectations from the weekly survey and measures based on the distribution of inflation expectations from a quarterly survey. These include measures of uncertainty, the probability of expected long-term inflation lying between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent, and deflation risk. We find that long-term euro-area inflation expectations remained broadly anchored to the European Central Bank’s inflation aim.
Authors
- Nikos Apokoritis
- Gabriele Galati
- Richhild Moessner
JEL codes
- E31
- E58
- F62