Volume 18, Issue 5 December 2022

The Link between Monetary Policy, Stock Prices, and House Prices - Evidence from a Statistical Indentification Approach

Abstract

This paper revisits the monetary policy–asset price nexus within a medium-sized structural VAR for the United States. With regard to identification, we put a recent approach into the spotlight of the analysis that exploits the uniqueness of linear combinations of non-Gaussian independent components under quite flexible distributional assumptions and at low computational cost. The economic interpretation of statistically identified shocks follows from utilizing informative external shock series. In a comparative analysis the benchmark identification scheme is cast into the context of a handful of alternative identification approaches. Our results indicate that contractionary monetary policy shocks have a mildly negative impact on both U.S. house and stock prices. The effect is less pronounced for equity. Moreover, we find considerable differences in the speed of monetary policy transmission among stock and house prices. Benchmark monetary policy shocks are rather robust for a variety of dynamic systems (and sample periods). Among corresponding estimates from alternative identification schemes, benchmark shocks align soundly with diverse economic underpinnings.

Authors

  • Helmut Herwartz
  • Simone Maxand
  • Hannes Rohloff

JEL codes

  • C32
  • E44
  • E52

Other papers in this issue

Aneta Hryckiewicz and Petra Pawlowski and Piotr Michal Mazur and Marcin Borsuk

Matthieu Darracq Pariès and Peter Karadi and Christoffer Kok and Kalin Nikolov

Markus Behn and Giacomo Mangiante and Laura Parisi and Michael Wedow

Javier Andrés and Óscar Arce and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Samuel Hurtadod