Volume 14, Issue 5 December 2018

Taylor-Rule Exit Policies for the Zero Lower Bound

Abstract

The monetary authority loses the ability to implement the Taylor rule at the zero lower bound. However, the promise to implement a Taylor rule upon exit remains an effective policy instrument.We show that a Taylor rule, with an optimally chosen exit date and time-varying inflation target, delivers fully optimal policy at the zero lower bound. Additionally, a Taylor rule with only an optimally chosen exit date but a zero inflation target delivers almost all the welfare gains of optimal policy and is simpler to communicate.

Authors

  • Siddhartha Chattopadhyay
  • Betty C. Daniel

JEL codes

  • E5
  • E52