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February 2017 issue
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Aramonte, Rosen, Schindler
Eijffinger, Mahieu, Raes
Bluedorn, Bowdler, Koch
Takahashi
Pekarski
Ehrmann, Pfaifar, Santoro
Karaca, Tugan
Boeckx, Dossche, Peersman
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Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

by Michael Ehrmanna, Damjan Pfajfarb and Emiliano Santoroc

Abstract

This paper studies consumersí inflation expectations using micro-level data from the University of Michiganís Surveys of Consumers. It shows that beyond the well-established socioeconomic factors such as income, age, or gender, inflation expectations are also related to respondentsí financial situation, their purchasing attitudes, and their expectations about the macroeconomy. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties and those with pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, income developments, or unemployment have a stronger upward bias than other households. However, their bias shrinks by more than that of the average household in response to increasing media reporting about inflation.

JEL Codes: C53, D84, E31.

 
Full article (PDF, 35 pages, 537 kb)


a European Central Bank
b Federal Reserve Board
c University of Copenhagen